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|a QC981.8.C5
|b M585 no.JP 14-003
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Monier, Erwan
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| 245 |
1 |
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|a Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States :
|b an uncertainty analysis /
|c Erwan Monier and Xiang Gao
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| 260 |
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|a Cambridge, MA :
|b MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change,
|c [2014]
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| 300 |
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|a 16 unnumbered pages (unpaged) :
|b color maps ;
|c 28 cm
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| 336 |
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|a text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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| 337 |
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|a unmediated
|b n
|2 rdamedia
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| 338 |
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|a volume
|b nc
|2 rdacarrier
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| 490 |
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|a Reprint ;
|v 2014-3
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| 500 |
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|a Cover title
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| 500 |
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|a Reprint. "Reprinted from Climatic Change, online first, doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1 Copyright © 2014 with kind permission from the authors."
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| 504 |
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|a Includes bibliographical references (pages 13-16)
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|a In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model--Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events
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| 655 |
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|a Technical reports
|2 fast
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| 655 |
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|a Technical reports
|2 lcgft
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Gao, Xiang
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| 710 |
2 |
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|a Massachusetts Institute of Technology
|b Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change.
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| 730 |
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|a Abstract in HTML and link to technical report available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Website
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| 730 |
0 |
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|a Climatic change
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| 830 |
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|a Reprint series (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change) ;
|v no. JP 14-003
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