Safe debt and uncertainty in emerging markets : an application to South Africa /

Safe debt and uncertainty in emerging markets : an application to South Africa /

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This paper develops a methodology for estimating a safe public debt level that would allow countries to remain below a maximum sustainable debt limit, taking into account the impact of uncertainty. Our analysis implies that fiscal policy should target a debt level well below the debt ceiling to allo...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Saxegaard, Magnus (Author)
Format: Book
Language:English
Published: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2014
Washington, D.C. : 2014
Series:IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2014/231
IMF eLibrary
IMF working paper ; WP/14/231
Subjects:
Debts, Public > South Africa > Econometric models
Fiscal policy > South Africa > Econometric models
Debt ceilings
Debt sustainability
Econometric models
Emerging markets
Fiscal policy
Public debt
Vector autoregression
debt ceilings
Dettes publiques > Afrique du Sud > Modèles économétriques
Politique fiscale > Afrique du Sud > Modèles économétriques
Asset and liability management
Debt Management
Debt limits
Debt
Debts, Public
Debts, Public > Econometric models
Expenditure
Expenditures, Public
Finance
Financial Risk Management
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy > Econometric models
Fiscal stance
Macroeconomics
National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
Public Finance
Public finance & taxation
Sovereign Debt
South Africa
Table of Contents:
  • Cover; Table of Contents; I. Introduction; II. Debt Sustainability and Debt Tolerance; Figures; 1. Rising Government Deficits and Debt; III. Estimating debt ceilings and debt benchmarks; Tables; 1. Examples of Debt Ceilings; IV. An application to South Africa; 2. Government Debt to GDP Ratio; 3. Deteriorating Public Debt Levels Relative to Peer Countries; A. A Debt Ceiling for South Africa; Boxes; 1. Data Coverage; 4. Sustainable Debt Ceiling; 5. Institutional Investor Rating; 2. Debt Intolerance and Debt; 6. Institutional Investor Rating and Government Debt
  • 3. Institutional Investor Rating and Government Debt7. Debt to GDP Ratios and Sovereign Ratings; B. A Debt Benchmark for South Africa; 8. Volatility of Fiscal Forecasts; 9. Government Debt Forecast - Baseline; 10. Government Debt Forecast - Slowdown Expenditure Growth; 11. Government Debt Forecast - Revenue Growth; 12. Output Loss; 13. Government Debt Forecast - Higher Potential Growth; V. Conclusion; VI. Bibliography

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